Going back to Northern Sumatra - 5 month countdown

I've started to plan my return surf trip to Northen Sumatra in May. I've already been there once.

Why am I going back?

• I've seen how consistent the swell is on Surfline (even though it was sort of small last time)
• I know there are a lot of world class spots up there
• There still aren't very many boats operating up that way
• No effects from the recent Mentawai earthquakes

What's different about this trip?

• Boat leaving out of Padang, not Sibolga, Simeulue, or Nias
• A day longer on the boat
• More efficient flights meaning less time off work and more surf time
• Half the guys from last time have had kids and can't go back

Why May?

• Memorial day weekend gets me an additional day for free
• Historically a very consistent month for swell
• technically peak season but possibly a bit less busy than June/July/Aug

Did the recent 8.4 Sumatra quake affect surf spots in the Mentawais?

First of all I don't have any information now, but will post any I receive as I hear back from friends or contacts with first or second hand experience. The only people who know the real scoop are out on boats now or will be going out over the next month or so.

I realize it is a bit crass to be discussing surf spot changes when there has been loss of life and much loss of property in the area, but if you can take a longer term view the world class spots offshore from Sumatra are some of the most consistent in the world and are one of the best chances to bringing low-impact, high-dollar tourism and development to this area. Ask yourself, would Dr. Dave Jenkins have started Surf Aid to prevent malaria in a group of rural, undeveloped islands on the _eastern_ side of Sumatra? Surf spot changes (which are bound to be mostly negative) will impact the long-term growth prospects of this region. I hope there were no negative effects on spots and that the word gets out that Macca's is still working while people are still thinking about where to go for next season.

Generally speaking it usually takes an 8+ earthquake to materially deform the earth's surface, and the 8.6 that hit North of Nias in March of 2005 has had a big effect on spots in Nias, the Hinakos, Simeulue, and the Banyaks. I did some imprecise Google Earth measurements and Lagundri Bay on Nias is about the same distance from the 8.6 Northern Sumatra quake as the southern end of South Pagai in the Mentawais is from the recent 8.4 quake. I realize the most recent quake may or may not have created much uplift but just on distance alone it still could affect Thunders, The Hole, and other secret spots in the southern Ments. Waves on Enggano or mainland Sumatra could be more significantly affected. Finally, Northern Sipora (the telescopes area) suffered a direct hit from a 7.2 aftershock. That's almost as big as the Loma Prieta earthquake that hit the Bay Area in 1989. Even if there was no effect on local surf spots it might be a bit harder to find a family to stay with if you want to go feral in Tua Pajet.