Mentawai Spot Observations - Macaroni's

Tide Height

We surfed it in the evening around 4-6pm and again in the morning 7-9 AM. These would have been fairly opposite tide phases and the waves seemed pretty similar in nature.

Swell Direction

The swell direction where we got it big was 180 straight south. The waves we observed were either a super-critical takeoff into a gnarly barrel or further down the line a slower mushy wall without the rippable open face. I understand it's more rippable and shoulder-hoppable with more SW direction, but we didn't see it from that direction so I can't say. Probably the most freakish thing we observed was the wall of the swell down the line was regularly bigger/taller than the part of the wave that was breaking. This seemed to be the case both from the lineup and from the boat.

Swell Size

As it gets bigger, Macca's breaks in pretty much the same spot. This means fun barrels at shoulder to head high turn into heaving, below sea-level pits when well overhead, and the rare double-overhead wave is awesomely gnarly with the top 25-30% of the face throwing out as lip. Evidently if it gets much bigger than 10-12 ft faces it breaks on an outer reef and is just whitewater through the inside.

The Reef

At Macaronis the reef is a big flat slab. If you get really close it it has some sharp stuff attached, but it's not particularly jagged or uneven. The real issue when hitting the reef is the violence of the impact, not so much the scraping/shredding of you skin. Guys have gotten compressed vertebrae and broken bones going down hard on bigger days, so with size comes real consequence.

I was on the inside in 18 inches of water when a big set hit, feeling pretty unlucky. The current sweeps hard down the reef, making it always seem like you are trying to punch through the breaking part of the wave if you paddle against it. However if you just relax and go with the flow the current mostly carries you out of trouble to the bottom of the reef, and you just have to make a long paddle back out.

Wave selection

Macca's is amazingly mechanical. You could move 15 feet in or out and be catching well overhead death slabs or shoulder high leftovers in the same session from about the same spot in the lineup. I observed the waves grinding down the line so slowly and regularly that if you were actually sitting in the lineup there was a zero percent chance of getting caught inside. Maybe this would work differently with a 225+ west swell, but I can't say.

The mechanical nature of the wave really helps when trying to figure out the takeoff spot. Move a couple palm trees further up or down the reef and you are too far back to make the tube or totally missing the tube and not getting barreled at all. If you are in just the right spot you have a heavy drop, a critical wall, pump a couple times then stall really hard to stay in there. It takes confidence to slam on the brakes after driving for speed but Macca's gives you that confidence quickly.

On the bigger days the 4th, 5th, 6th waves of the set were cross-chopped from the first couple set waves whitewater reflecting sideways off the reef and moving down the line. It seem be pretty obvious to avoid those.

At about the 20 second mark check the little wave breaking on top of the suckout - he thinks he's in charge!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwJuKFXpfmY

Mentawai Spot Observations - HT's (Lance's Right)

HT's is less mechanical and more moody than I thought it would be. It's consistently rideable but to get quality HT's you just have to sit there until the tide height, tide direction, and wind direction come together, and then pick the right waves.

Tide Direction.

With an outgoing tide, all the water in the Mentawai channel behind Sipora and North Pagai is gushing out the straits between Sipora and North Pagai. Swell on it's way to HT's has to push in through there, and when the swell slows down relative to the bottom it has more time to feel the bottom and lose energy. I should have figured this would be the case a la Desert Point but it just never occurred to me. When the tide starts coming in hard, on one session we observed a lot of chop coming through the lineup. It was like a continuous boat wake for 15 or 20 minutes, unexplainable considering it was glassy and no boats were going anywhere.

Our last day there we saw consistent overhead sets predawn, and very very few overhead waves for 9 or 10 hours until the tide started pushing in and then suddenly the sets were double overhead with overhead waves just pouring through. Considering the 180 degree swell wrap at HT's, tide push is the only possible explanation for regular overhead waves there.

Tide Height

High tide seemed much softer. A lot of barrels would pinch shut. Some waves didn't really barrel. There was water on the reef but with a little less danger but a lot less wave quality I'm not sure it was worth it. I steered clear of this condition.

At the lowest tide incoming we saw the set waves barreling on the outside, pinching off, doubling up and barreling really hard again through the middle. This lasted about an hour or so and by the time more water had filled in the sets weren't really doubling up any more.

Wave selection

Wave selection is absolutely crucial at HT's. We'd be sitting for the wide ones and then really wide ones would come, throw a closeout barrel all the way to the channel, then mush on the shoulder. Those waves just aren't rideable. Saying you are sitting for the wide ones was also kind of a misnomer, waves would peak or wall up all up and down the line. It's not just one boil of peak on the wide ones.

Up at the Office we saw total closeouts, smoking down the line barrels makeable only by the fastest guys, and slower bowling barrels with drawn out bottom turns, stalls into the hook, and lots of arm dragging. All in the same session at the same spot. The best guys would sit out there for 30-45 minutes with a couple other guys on the peak just waiting for the right wave. It was not a crowd factor, just waiting for the right one.

Crowds

People often quantify Mentawais crowds in increments of "boats", as in "We had south wind and small waves and there were seven boats at Thunders. It sucked." However HT's breaks not too far off the beach in front of Katiet Village on the well-connected island of Sipora. The opportunities for budget-minded surfers to stay with an enterprising hut owner in Katiet for $2 a day are nearly unlimited. In past years up to 60 guys might be staying on land in peak season. The high end resort at Katiet Villas was totally empty when we were there, but the manager and a handyman working there were both out surfing, along with 15-20 guys in Katiet.

The bottom line here is that even if the swell is pumping and the winds are perfect all day, the tide conditions are going to cause big intraday quality fluctuations at HT's. It's definitely a place to sit and watch for a while before having a go, and if you've got your eye on it you can be first out when it turns on.

The second wave in this video is one of the best waves we saw at HT's, rider unknown

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnsiYs_sgoo

Sailing Sumatra on "Mikumba" June 27

There were a lot of last minute deals out there this year, even for some peak season dates.  Back in October I had booked Mikumba with Sumatran Surfariis.  I knew the boat was solid, and the guide would be on it.  

When the economy hit the skids a bunch of the people I thought would come had to bail.   I was facing a nightmare - I had committed to a trip that might not go because it didn't have enough people.  What happens in this scenario?  You get your money back, but only a week in advance, which is really too late to do anything except go to Padang and try to get on with some boat, any boat.

The guys going with me were depending on me to find us the best trip, and I shopped all the last minute specials and emailed every boat I could find to see if they were available during my timeframe.  If a boat is available, you have to ask yourself why - is the boat not quite what it looks like on the internet?  Is the guide a drunk who likes to sleep late?  How bad could the food be?  For the posh looking boats you have to wonder if the guide really knows what's going on.

It came down to these factors:  Most boats only had one tender boat, and Mikumba has two - this is really key for shooting video or being able to ferry guys between two nearby spots without abandoning anyone.  There were a couple of nicer boats available with experienced captains and I seriously considered going with San Souci 2, but $50 more per night for a 14 day/15 night meant the trip cost a LOT more money.  I wasn't sure it would be worth it.  

Bottom line was through friends of friends of friends and a couple of random guys we got enough people to secure a guaranteed departure.  We were totally psyched to get the boat we wanted, the crew we wanted, the dates we wanted, and the flexibility to head to the Telos & Nias with no BS surcharges.  There weren't any discounts, but in the end we still got a great value - 14 surf days for $3150, a spacious boat with a 20 foot beam, two tender boats, the freedom to go to the Telos/Nias/beyond, the Mentawais, or both, and a proven guide & crew.

Mentawai historical swell data by month

As a Surfline premium member, I get access to crazy amounts of data.  Over the last year or so I have been manually collecting data for the Mentawai/Sumatra area day by day from Surfline's LOLA model.

To the best of my knowledge, this data for Sumatra isn't based on anything collected by scientific instruments in Indonesian waters or human observation.  It's just the output from a complex proprietary Surfline algorithm for predicting swell height, period, and direction based on limited, but real wind speed, direction, and sea state data collected by weather stations, buoys, and US government satellites.  As such, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

This narrow swell-focused view does not take into account wind or tides, but I feel these are reasonable to ignore.  With the smaller tidal range west of Sumatra most spots work acceptably on most tides and tide flow directions.  With respect to wind, Sumatra is noted for light and variable wind.  Strong, consistent winds from one direction do happen (like the S/SE pattern July-Sept 2006) but such patterns are relatively rare until you go south of the Mentawais on mainland Sumatra. 

So on to the numbers - what I have here is the average "Swell Energy" for each month from July 07-February 09.  I use quotes around swell energy because if Surfline said a given day was 3-4 ft at 15 seconds, I just add the smaller height number to the period to get Swell Energy.  So a pumping, big-as-it-gets swell of 9 ft 17 sec would be a 26 whereas some 3 ft 12 sec junk would be a 15.  This works because wave energy is a function of both swell height squared and swell period squared.  To some degree, the two are fairly interchangeable.  This isn't to say that 3 ft 17 sec will look just like 6 ft 14 seconds at your local break, but that level of complexity is spot-specific and beyond what I can possibly figure out.

July 2007 Average 21.1

August 2007 Average 21.6

September 2007 Average 20.3

October 2007 Average 18.4

November 2007 Average 16.9

December 2007 Average 15.1

January 2008 Average 16.1

February 2008 Average 16.8

March 2008 Average 17.9

April 2008 Average 18.9

May 2008 Average 19.9

June 2008 Average 19.8

July 2008 Average 20.6

August 2008 Average 19.9

September 2008 Average 19.7

October 2008 Average 17.2

November 2008 Average 13.6

December 2008 Average 15.2

January 2008 Average 16.5

February 2008 Average 14.9

I know there are a lot of sites out there that crunch historical data and give it away for free like this one - but there are differences.  Since magicseaweed has to cover all sorts of crappy unreliable spots in Florida, the Caribbean, Brazil, etc, their bar for "ridable" is a lot lower than the average Mentawai boat trip punter.  To say that Macaroni's is "rideable" between 62% and 90% in January might be true in the Florida sense, but if you pulled up there and the swell was 4 ft 11 sec, the guide wouldn't even drop the anchor before pulling a U-turn and heading for Thunder's.

From what I have seen swell energy of 19 or 20 should be enough juice to make swell magnets go overhead+ and get all but the neediest spots into the shoulder-to-head high range.  This is the swell that gives you the session of the trip, everyone's best wave of the trip, all the keeper photos and video clips, and sticks in your mind and makes you determined to come back next year.  In peak season, you can see the islands off Sumatra do that pretty consistently.

Mentawai bookings hit hard by global recession

With official recession status established in the US and looming in Australia, anecdotal evidence indicates the Sumatran surf industry has been hit hard by slow bookings and last-minute cancellations in Q1 2009.  Q1 is normally be a peak time for bookings for travel during the May-September high season.

The industry consists of 40+ charter boats and over a dozen land-based camps and resorts scattered from North Pagai Island in the Mentawai chain to Simeulue and the Banyak islands north of Nias.  With 6-12 surfers per trip spending between USD2500 and USD5000 each, one week in peak season could see over USD100,000 in tourism dollars flowing through companies based in Padang, the capital of Western Sumatra province.  Obviously not all this money is spent locally.  Commissions on these trips paid to booking agents range from 10-30%.  Boat owners and guides are generally not in the business for the money, most being surfers themselves they are willing to cut their own profits to low levels to cover their capital costs, stay in the water, and enjoy personal relationships with long-time return guests.   Still, around half the revenue coming in is likely spent locally on fuel, food, salaries, tips, maintenance, lodging, and government taxes.

The recent news is not all bad.  For the 2007 and 2008 seasons fuel costs soared, causing charter price increases and fuel surcharges, especially for more fuel-intensive trips from Padang heading north to Nias and beyond.  However recently fuel costs have decreased with the drop in oil prices, and those fuel surcharges are generally a thing of the past.  

Another side effect of reduced fuel prices is that it gives charter operators with half-filled trips some latitude to discount prices or leave port half-empty.  With fuel prices sky-high during 2008, many boats would not leave port less than 80%+ of available spots filled.  In a good economy, this was a way to keep per-person prices down while leaving some margin.  But with today's fuel prices and slow bookings, many operators are choosing to guarantee sailings of half- or mostly-empty charters to incent new bookings and bring in needed revenue to offset the fixed costs of boat ownership and off-season maintenance.

Finally, boat captains and booking agents may be more willing to accomodate individuals rather than holding out for a low-hassle, full-boat booking that puts the responsibility to fill the boat on whoever puts up the money for the booking.

As evidence, I got a promo email from wavehunters.com on February 20 with a lot of half-empty, discouted peak-season trips.  This sample is only 4 boats of 40, but since wavehunters makes frequent updates regarding availability and discounts I looked at their site to sort of "update" their promotion and see how things are going right now for peak season trips in May-July.

Apr 28 - May 09: (Nusantara) 4 spots *$2800pp (Guaranteed to sail) 
May 02 - May 14: (Addiction) 10 spots * Highly discounted 
May 12 - May 23: (Nusantara) 7 spots *$2800pp (2 more minimum to sail) 
May 22 - Jun 02: (Bintang) 12 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (6 minimum to sail) 
Jun 05 - Jun 16: (Bintang) 5 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (Guranteed to sail) 
Jun 09 - Jun 20: (Nusantara) 3 spots *$2800pp (Guaranteed to sail) 
Jun 18 - Jun 30: (Navistar) 7 spots *$2580pp individual / $2313pp 8 person full boat booking (4 minimum to sail) 
Jun 19 - Jun 30: (Bintang) 12 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (6 minimum to sail) 
Jun 23 - Jul 04: (Nusantara) 6 spots *$2800pp (Guaranteed to sail)

Jun 27 - Jul 09 (Addiction) 6 spots * Discounted

Jul 21 - Aug 01: (Nusantara) 10 spots *$2800pp

Jul 17 - Jul 28: (Bintang) 12 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (6 minimum to sail)

It looks like Navistar will guarantee sailing at half full and Nusantara will sail at 40% full.  Addiction was not really discouting in February but they are now, and sail with 6 of 10 bunks filled.  Two Navistar trips promoted in the earlier email have now booked out.  Going beyond July, Bintang only has 4 of 11 peak season May-September trips booked, so they are clearly hurting.  Bintang was saying minimun 6 surfers to sail in February but now they are saying minimum of 4, this on a large boat that holds 12 surfers.

Elsewhere, the ultra-luxe Midas has reduced peak season rates by 20% to get new bookings, and 6 of their 11 sailings for the May-Sept period are unbooked. 

Indies Trader 4 "Off the Market", "quite busy"

As I initially heard from Evan at SurfThereNow in this post and from reader Rick Cameron last fall that Indies Trader 4 was for sale, no doubt a sign of hard economic times and a plunging stock price for Quiksilver. Nicknamed "The Death Star" by envious boat captains and their guests, Indies 4 has been the most extravagant way to cruise for surf in Indonesia and the Marshall islands, with a high top speed, luxurious ensuite cabins, helipad, and rates rumored to be between $1200-2000/person/day. However, the "recession" circumstances reported on earlier may have changed for the better.

In an exchange with Indies Trader representative Anthony Marcotti, I asked about the status and availability of Indies Trader 4. He noted that "[Indies Trader 4 is] off the market and quite busy… it has 5 charters this summer in the Mentawais."

Perhaps the owners could not get the price they wanted in the off season and decided to bite the bullet and run another season in the perfect waves off Sumatra.

Has " Indies Explorer " left the Mentawai charter scene for good?

Indies Explorer boat first caught my eye when featured in a surf video a while back. It's one of the largest and most recognizable charter boats in Indonesia, a Pinissi schooner over 100 feet long, bright white with two tall sailing masts. I saw this iconic boat at Thunders in August 2006. It was a small day of forgettable surf and 40 people were in the water groveling for some chest-high sets. Indies Trader 4 was also there, so we felt pretty smart that our groveling session didn't cost $1200/person/day.

About Indies Explorer, when I was looking for a Mentawais charter boat I was intrigued by the large size and relatively low per-day cost, but the boat holds 12 guests which was sort of a turn-off and the schedule didn't work out for the dates I had available. That day at Thunders I felt fortunate to have skipped since it looked like the boat didn't have much shaded common space with a view of the surf (always a precious commodity on surf trips). The sleeping cabins below decks all had ventiliation hatches in the middle of the main deck and the deck sloped up forward and aft, basically killing the most logical place for a picnic table, hammocks, etc. When we drove by in our dinghy there were also bits around the stern that looked kind of beat up and run-down. I scrutinized the other boats we came across as much as possible - there are only so many boats over there and I wanted to see what kind of shape they were in, did they pitch and roll a lot when anchored, etc. The truth is that some boats just look better on the internet and Indies Explorer is probably one of them. Using 6-year-old photos on the booking web site is one slightly deceptive practice - recent boat photos are always a good thing to ask for.

Anyway to make a long story short, I was thinking about all this because I recently learned that an overnight storm washed "a big white wooden sailboat" up on the beach in Padang. I don't think there are many other such craft near Padang besides Indies Explorer. For all the things that looked impractical about it you can'd deny the boat has soul. If anyone is thinking about going on Indies Explorer in 2008 or knows if it did in fact hit the beach drop me a line.